US retail sales increase in August 2023 despite higher inflation

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Clothing and accessory stores experienced a 0.9 percent monthly boost on a seasonally adjusted basis and a 3.6 percent YoY increase on an unadjusted basis

Despite ongoing inflation and higher interest rates, retail sales in the United States saw a noticeable increase in August, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

In August, retail sales surged by 0.6 percent compared to the previous month and saw a 2.5 percent year-over-year (YoY) increase. This follows a 0.5 percent month-over-month (MoM) increase and a 2.6 percent annual rise in July, according to data from the US Census Bureau.

Figure: Despite ongoing inflation and higher interest rates, retail sales in the United States saw a noticeable increase in August.

However, the NRF’s own calculations showed a slightly different trend, with modest growth of 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to July and a significant 3.3 percent unadjusted YoY increase. These figures were consistent with July’s numbers, which also showed a 0.7 percent growth MoM and a similar YoY increase.

Looking at the broader picture, a three-month moving average indicated a 3.2 percent unadjusted YoY increase as of August, with a substantial 3.8 percent rise observed over the first eight months of 2023.

When examining specific retail categories, five out of nine sectors saw annual sales growth in August, with notable gains in online sales and clothing and accessory stores. On a monthly basis, all categories showed an upward trend except for two.

Online and other non-store sales remained flat on a seasonally adjusted MoM basis but saw a significant 7.6 percent increase on an unadjusted YoY scale.

General merchandise stores saw a 0.3 percent growth from July on a seasonally adjusted basis and a 3 percent rise compared to the previous year on an unadjusted basis.

In contrast, sporting goods stores experienced a 1.6 percent decline both on a seasonally adjusted MoM basis and a year-over-year unadjusted basis.

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